Development and examination of a proliferation trade risk metric

Volume: 59, December 2019, pages 57-67,

Authors: Adam Attarian, Peter Heine, Amanda Sayre

^{Pacific Northwest National Laboratory}

Abstract: A Proliferation Trade Risk metric has been calculated for each country represented in a publicly-available global trade dataset. This metric, comprising both direct and indirect proliferation trade risk components, represents the risk that each country’s proliferation-relevant exports will go to a designated set of proliferation threat countries. This metric can serve to prioritize non-proliferation export control capacity building engagement. Further, within such engagement, the decomposition of the proliferation trade risk metric can identify specific industrial sectors and trade relationships of greatest importance for outreach and enforcement measures. Finally, these supply-side perspectives can be complemented by threat-based profiles identifying the most important suppliers to each threat country.

Keywords: export controls; trade analysis; non-proliferation; outreach; capacity building, risk management

Reference guideline:

Attarian, A., Heine, P., & Sayre, A. (2019). Development and examination of a proliferation trade risk metric. ESARDA Bulletin - The International Journal of Nuclear Safeguards and Non-proliferation, 59, 57-67. https://doi.org/10.3011/ESARDA.IJNSNP.2019.15