International Engagement in Arms Control Verification Using a Systems Approach

Volume: 54, June 2017, pages 82-87,

Authors: M. Dreicer¹, I. Niemeyer², G. Stein³

¹_{Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory,} ²_{Forschungszentrum Jülich,} ³_{Consultant, Bonn}

Abstract:

A series of exercises and targeted meetings held by the European Safeguards Research and Development Association (ESARDA) Verification Technologies and Methodologies Working Group and the Institute of Nuclear Materials Management (INMM) Nonproliferation and Arms Control Technical Division provided valuable insight into how a systems approach could help identify nonproliferation and arms control verification requirements. International experts from nuclear weapons states and non-nuclear weapons states, with a wide-range of expertise in nuclear safeguards, arms control verification, radiation detection, political science, and defense studies, participated in the discussions. It was demonstrated that with a systems approach, it is possible to design a transparent state-level systems framework to define arms control verification objectives, processes, and timescales for an effective verification regime based on the strategic goals of a treaty, while taking into account restrictions from different security environments. This approach was also shown to be an effective mechanisms for international and technical engagement on such complicated issues. Possible future research activities could include: (1) increased efforts to link the material and weapons sectors of the nuclear weapons complex; (2) further attention on how to satisfy the competing needs for effective verification and protection of national security; (3) greater consideration on how to define the treaty-controlled items so that declarations can be verified effectively; (4) continued testing of a systems approach to analyze the pros and cons of possible verification regimes, to conduct a form of sensitivity analysis and provide feedback and a better understanding of confidence levels that could be achieved; and (5) possible ideas of how to engage in substantive dialogue in a broad international environment, such as the on-going International Partnership for Nuclear Disarmament Verification (IPNDV), while taking into account the range of weapons and verification experience and the need to uphold NPT Article VI.

Keywords: verification, arms control, systems approach

Reference guideline:

Dreicer, M., Niemeyer, I., & Stein, G. (2017). International Engagement in Arms Control Verification Using a Systems Approach. ESARDA Bulletin - The
International Journal of Nuclear Safeguards and Non-proliferation, 54, 82-87. https://doi.org/10.3011/ ESARDA.IJNSNP.2017.11